Plans fail but preparation pays

By Ann Latham Plans fail. So why do we often neglect to plan accordingly? Instead, we "plan harder," trying to extract more certainty from the uncertain. The most important and most neglected aspect of planning involves identifying potential problems so you can prevent them, and being prepared to address those you fail to prevent. For example, we try to prevent household fires by ensuring wiring is in good condition, performing safety inspections, managing combustible materials appropriately, etc. But we also prepare for the possibility of fire with contingent actions: smoke detectors, fire extinguishers, and support for the local fire department. These contingent actions won't prevent a fire, but it would be foolish not to have them ready should a fire occur. Let's move from the home front to a recent well-publicized example the winter 2007 fiasco with Jet Blue. The company was unable to prevent weather delays, but were they prepared once the delays became inevitable? Did they have contingency plans? Leaving people trapped in planes on the tarmac for hours suggests they were not prepared. The ripple effect, which left planes in all the wrong places and Jet Blue unable to get back on schedule once weather conditions improved, is indicative of no system-wide contingency planning. The consequences of both were miserable for their customers, their reputation, and their shareholders. Small business applications You're not Jet Blue, but what might go wrong in your business? You should draw on past experiences, but also anticipate new problems. Narrow your focus by considering impact and likelihood, including which problems would be most serious if they did occur, and which ones are most likely to occur. Once you have identified potential problems, determine the likely causes of each. It is the cause you must remove. For example, you cannot be late for an important meeting, a potential problem with myriad possible causes. You could prevent over-sleeping by setting two alarms, targeting the wrong time by calling to confirm, and wardrobe problems by selecting clothes the night before. Some preventive actions address multiple causes: allowing yourself plenty of extra time to get to your appointment can prevent you from being late due to traffic, parking, and wrong turns. Focus your resources You can't prevent all problems, nor eliminate all causes, but a highly likely problem with serious consequences demands the most thorough examination of possible causes and the most comprehensive set of preventive actions. Should a problem occur despite your preventive efforts, you need contingent actions, including: How to reduce the impact; How to resolve the immediate situation; How to minimize broader damage. Warning signs Things often go wrong long before they become obvious. For example, a sales manager plans to institute commissions to increase revenue for a custom manufacturing business. A potential problem is that the sales force starts taking unprofitable business. Who is in a position to monitor the quality of new business early enough to prevent many orders destined for huge losses? Create triggers for contingent actions with answers to these questions by identifying who will be in a position to detect the problem as early as possible and at what point they need to take action. You have to know what to look for, how to monitor and the criteria for activating any contingency plan. Summary steps Protect any plan with these 5 steps: 1. Identify potential problems 2. Determine cause of the most serious or most likely problems 3. Establish preventive actions to eliminate the most likely causes 4. Identify contingent actions to reduce the impact should the problem occur anyway 5. Create mechanisms to trigger contingent actions Plans are never perfect and the consequences of being imperfect can be terrible. Make protecting your plan a habit and you will enjoy greater success and more restful sleep.